Time Series

By Abdulla Israr & Simran Rani

 TIME SERIES

Description also available in video format (attached below), for better experience use your desktop.

Introduction

·       A set of observations taken at specified time, usually at equal intervals.

·       A series of values over a period of time

·       Collection of magnitude belonging to different time periods of some economic variables such as

§  Per Capita Income

§  Gross National Income

§  Price of Tobacco etc.

·       One variable is “Time” which is independent in nature and the second variable is “Data” which is dependent in nature.

·       For an example

o   In table 1 it can be clearly states that the sale of milk packets is decreasing from Monday to Friday then again its start to increase.

o   Same thing in table 2, the population is continually increasing.

 

Objectives & Importance of Time Series Analysis

·       Profit of Experience

·       Safety from future

·       Sales Forecasting

·       Stock Market Analysis

·       Process & Quality Control

·       Inventory Studies

·       Risk Analysis

·       Yield projection

·       Budgetary Analysis

 

Components of Time Series

These are the characteristics movements, variations or fluctuations of time series and are of following types

  1. Secular Trend
  2. Seasonal Variation
  3. Cyclical Variation
  4. Irregular Variation

 

Secular Trend

·       It is the general tendency of the data to grow or decline over  long period of time

·       It involves the forces which are constant over a long period produce the trend, for example

§  Population change

§  Technology progress

§  Better medical facility

·       The general purposes of measuring the trend are

§  Knowledge of past behaviour

§  Estimation

§  Study of other components

 

Seasonal Variation

·       The components responsible for the regular rise or fall in the time series during a period not more than 1year

·       Variation occurs in a regular sequence

·       The factors that can cause seasonal variation are

§  Climate & weather condition

§  Customs tradition

·       The examples of this variation includes

o   Crops are sown and harvested at certain times every year and the demand for the labor going up during sowing and harvesting

o   Demand for wollen clothes goes up in winter

o   Increase of prices in festivals

 

Cyclical Variation

·       It refers to the recurrent variations in time series and usually last longer than a year.

·       These are the long term movements that represent consistently recurring rises and declines in activity

·       The cyclical variation consist of 4phases

§  Prosperity

§  Decline

§  Depression

§  Recovery

 

Irregular Variation

·       It also known as erratic, random, or accidental variations

·       It does not repeat in a definite patterns and they are unpredictable in nature

·       The examples of this variations are

§  Strikes

§  Fire

§  Wars

§  Famines

§  Earthquakes

§  Floods

·       The major characteristics of this variation are

§  Irregular & Unpredictable

§  No definite pattern

§  For a short period of time

 

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